Facing multiple possible lead indications, we helped our client define a logical development path to minimize risk and optimize value.
- Health Advances’ client had a product with demonstrated anti-infective and anti-inflammatory properties that was suitable for multiple routes of administration.
- The client has limited resources for product development.
- The challenge was to prioritize development of this compound considering clinical unmet need, market size, resources required for development, and the likelihood of success.
Critical Questions to Address
- What indications produce the greatest NPV?
- What is the predicted cost of development and associated risk in each indication?
- Do different indications drive price points that preclude use in other areas?
- Will development in any single indication reduce risk or advance other indications?
Health Advances Approach
- Determined list of potential indications based on mechanism of action.
- Developed screening criteria to focus on a discrete number of high-value potential indications.
- Completed an extensive set of interviews with physicians across clinical specialties to determine relative unmet need and potential use for product with this mechanism of action.
- Created a scenario-based model to help our client evaluate various developmental options to produce a high-value program with minimized risk.
- Despite smaller NPV, Health Advances recommended a lead indication with high unmet need and relatively short development timeline to establish clinical proof of concept.
- We outlined a series of development steps, which, depending on results, would inform follow-on indications to ensure maximum return over time.